Settled
Free pick
Strong
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds4.4000
Pinnacle anchor4.1900
Fair probability (Pinnacle)23.87%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+5.0%
Edge (post-tax)+5.0%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.37%
Units (display)2u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-2.00u
Pinnacle closing line4.8700
CLV%-16.71%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Smarkets offers Bournemouth at 4.40 versus Pinnacle's 4.19 fair value, representing a 5.01% post-tax edge on the home selection. This 21-tick overround gap suggests market inefficiency where Smarkets' odds overvalue the underdog relative to sharp consensus, likely due to recreational volume on the exchange inflating longer odds. The edge persists after accounting for exchange fees, indicating genuine value capture at the quoted price.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 4.1900 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 4.4000 |