Skip to main content
Settled
Free pick
Solid

Bournemouth vs Manchester City

EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC

Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerUnibet
Book odds4.3500
Pinnacle anchor4.1900
Fair probability (Pinnacle)23.87%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.8%
Edge (post-tax)+3.8%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.29%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line4.8700
CLV%-16.71%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)

Unibet's 4.35 on Bournemouth represents a 23.0% implied probability versus Pinnacle's 4.19 fair value anchor at 23.9%, creating a 0.9% raw edge that expands to 3.82% after accounting for typical sportsbook tax structures. The overround differential suggests Unibet has compressed their Manchester City odds relative to the draw, making the home underdog relatively more valuable in their pricing matrix. This represents positive expected value territory given the 3.82% post-tax margin available between the two books.

Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit

pinnacle
bookmaker
Odds snapshots over time per source4.324.274.224.194.35May 17, 10:58 AMMay 17, 10:58 AM

Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.

Odds history (2 snapshots)
TimestampSourceMarketSelectionOddsClosing
5/17/26, 10:58 AMpinnacleh2hhome4.1900
5/17/26, 10:58 AMbookmakerh2hhome4.3500
18+ only. Gambling can be addictive — help at BeGambleAware.