Settled
Free pick
Small
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerBetfair
Book odds3.9000
Pinnacle anchor3.8100
Fair probability (Pinnacle)26.25%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.4%
Edge (post-tax)+2.4%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.20%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.7600
CLV%-1.58%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Betfair's 3.90 on the draw overvalues this outcome relative to Pinnacle's 3.81 fair value, creating a 2.36% post-tax edge for the selection. The 9-tick overlay suggests market inefficiency where casual bettors on Betfair are pricing the draw slightly wider than sharp consensus, indicating Chelsea vs Tottenham's true draw probability sits closer to 26.2% rather than Betfair's implied 25.6%. This represents a quantifiable positive expected value opportunity when accounting for post-tax returns.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.8100 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.9000 |