Settled
Free pick
Solid
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerLadbrokes AU
Book odds1.8000
Pinnacle anchor1.7400
Fair probability (Pinnacle)57.47%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.5%
Edge (post-tax)+3.5%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.08%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.6400
CLV%+2.71%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Ladbrokes AU prices Manchester City at 1.80 while Pinnacle's market-derived fair value sits at 1.74, creating a 3.45% post-tax edge on the away selection. City's superior underlying metrics and historical dominance justify the Pinnacle consensus, yet the Australian bookmaker offers a 3.4% overround advantage to backers willing to exploit the gap. The discrepancy suggests Ladbrokes AU has accommodated recreational liability on the home side rather than accurately pricing City's true win probability of 57.5%.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 1.7400 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 1.8000 |