Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds5.6000
Pinnacle anchor4.9600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)20.16%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+12.9%
Edge (post-tax)+12.9%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.70%
Units (display)3u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's fair value of 4.96 for Nottingham Forest implies a 20.2% win probability, while the 5.60 odds at Smarkets price them at 17.9%. This 2.3-point gap produces a 12.9% edge after Smarkets' exchange tax, suggesting meaningful value. Pinnacle serves as a reliable fair-value benchmark given its razor-thin margins and primarily sharp-bettor client base, making deviations of this magnitude statistically significant.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 4.9600 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 5.6000 |