Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds7.2000
Pinnacle anchor6.5600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)15.24%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+9.8%
Edge (post-tax)+9.8%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.39%
Units (display)3u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+18.60u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Smarkets' draw odds of 7.20 represent a 13.89% implied probability versus Pinnacle's fair value of 6.56 (15.24% probability), indicating the market is underpricing draw likelihood by approximately 135 basis points. After accounting for typical Smarkets commission structure, the post-tax edge of 9.76% persists, suggesting material positive expected value exists on this selection where the closing odds have systematically diverged from the sharp benchmark.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 6.5600 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 7.2000 |