Settled
Free pick
Strong
Leeds United vs Brighton and Hove Albion
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerBetfair
Book odds3.9000
Pinnacle anchor3.7500
Fair probability (Pinnacle)26.67%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.0%
Edge (post-tax)+4.0%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.34%
Units (display)2u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-2.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.6000
CLV%+1.28%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's 3.75 fair value for this draw, derived from their low-margin model and sharp market action, sits notably below the 3.90 offered on Betfair. The 4.0% positive edge after tax suggests Betfair's price contains inefficiency relative to the consensus implied probability, making this a mathematically favorable proposition by Pinnacle's standards.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.7500 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.9000 |