Settled
Free pick
Solid
Everton vs Sunderland
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerBetfair
Book odds1.9100
Pinnacle anchor1.8600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)53.76%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.7%
Edge (post-tax)+2.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.74%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.8500
CLV%-2.51%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Betfair's 1.91 on Everton home carries a 2.69% edge over Pinnacle's 1.86 fair value, representing a +2.69% deviation from true odds. At the same probability distribution (53.76% implied win chance), the overround differential between books creates exploitable value on the home side. The spread between Betfair and Pinnacle's assessment indicates market mispricing favoring the Everton selection.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.8600 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 1.9100 |