Settled
Free pick
Strong
Arsenal vs Burnley
EPL · Monday, May 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerWilliam Hill
Book odds29.0000
Pinnacle anchor27.4900
Fair probability (Pinnacle)3.64%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+5.5%
Edge (post-tax)+5.5%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.05%
Units (display)2u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-2.00u
Pinnacle closing line26.9100
CLV%-1.16%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/19/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
William Hill's 29.00 on Burnley represents a 3.45% overround compared to Pinnacle's 27.49 fair value line, implying the market underestimates away win probability at roughly 3.45% relative to true odds. After accounting for UK betting tax at approximately 15%, the effective payout of 24.65 still prices Burnley's win probability at 4.06%, creating a 5.49% edge between the tax-adjusted William Hill odds and Pinnacle's consensus fair value.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 27.4900 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 29.0000 |