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Settled
Free pick
Solid

Bournemouth vs Manchester City

EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC

Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerCoral
Book odds1.8000
Pinnacle anchor1.7400
Fair probability (Pinnacle)57.47%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.5%
Edge (post-tax)+3.5%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.08%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.6400
CLV%+2.71%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)

Coral's 1.80 on Manchester City away contains a 3.45% positive expected value advantage when compared to Pinnacle's 1.74 fair value consensus, representing a measurable deviation that favors the selection. The 6 cent gap between the two lines exceeds typical vigorish compression and suggests the market has underpriced City's win probability at approximately 57.5%, compared to Pinnacle's implied 57.5%, creating a quantifiable overlay. This edge persists after accounting for tax implications, making the offered odds mathematically superior to the sharp consensus benchmark.

Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit

pinnacle
bookmaker
Odds snapshots over time per source1.791.771.751.741.80May 17, 10:58 AMMay 17, 10:58 AM

Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.

Odds history (2 snapshots)
TimestampSourceMarketSelectionOddsClosing
5/17/26, 10:58 AMpinnacleh2haway1.7400
5/17/26, 10:58 AMbookmakerh2haway1.8000
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