Settled
Free pick
Solid
Atalanta BC vs Bologna
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds1.8200
Pinnacle anchor1.7600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)56.82%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.4%
Edge (post-tax)+3.4%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.04%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.7600
CLV%-3.16%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Matchbook's 1.82 for Atalanta home creates a 3.41% post-tax edge versus Pinnacle's 1.76 fair value, indicating the market has underpriced Atalanta's win probability at approximately 54.9% when Pinnacle suggests 56.8%. The 6 basis point gap between the two sharp markets suggests bookmaker line lag or differential sharp assessment, with Matchbook offering positive expected value for backing the stronger home side in Serie A.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.7600 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 1.8200 |