Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Sevilla vs Real Madrid
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds3.5000
Pinnacle anchor3.2800
Fair probability (Pinnacle)30.49%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+6.7%
Edge (post-tax)+6.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.67%
Units (display)3u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.2500
CLV%-1.89%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Smarkets prices Sevilla at 3.50 against a Pinnacle fair value of 3.28, implying an overround-adjusted probability of 30.5% versus the consensus 30.5%, creating a +6.71% post-tax edge on the home moneyline. The 6.7% gap between Smarkets' decimal odds and Pinnacle's sharp closing line suggests significant value in backing Sevilla, as the fixture odds likely underweight home-ground advantage and recent form dynamics that sharper markets have already priced in.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 3.2800 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 3.5000 |