Settled
Free pick
Solid
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerMarathonbet
Book odds4.5000
Pinnacle anchor4.3600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)22.94%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.2%
Edge (post-tax)+3.2%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.23%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's 4.36 fair value for the draw, derived from their minimal margin and sharp market action, sits notably below Marathonbet's 4.50 offering. This 3.2% positive edge after accounting for tax represents a mathematically favorable pricing discrepancy between the two books.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 4.3600 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 4.5000 |