CA Osasuna vs Espanyol
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Smarkets prices Espanyol's away victory at 4.50 compared to Pinnacle's fair value of 4.22, representing a 6.64% post-tax edge for the away side. This 6.8% overround in Smarkets' odds relative to the Pinnacle benchmark suggests meaningful mispricing, likely underestimating Espanyol's true winning probability at approximately 23.7% versus the 4.50 odds probability of 22.2%. The edge emerges from market inefficiency between the peer-to-peer exchange and the sharp limit order book, with sufficient odds deviation to justify quantitative interest.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 4.2200 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 4.5000 |