Settled
Free pick
Small
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
NBA · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds1.4400
Pinnacle anchor1.4100
Fair probability (Pinnacle)70.92%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.1%
Edge (post-tax)+2.1%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.21%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.4500
CLV%-5.57%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Matchbook's 1.44 on Oklahoma City Thunder at home sits 2.13 percentage points above Pinnacle's 1.41 fair value consensus line, representing a quantifiable edge. The overround differential suggests the market has underweighted Thunder's home court advantage and recent form relative to the sharp closing number, creating positive expected value for backing the favorite at this price.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.4100 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 1.4400 |