Settled
Free pick
Solid
Sassuolo vs Lecce
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds3.3500
Pinnacle anchor3.2300
Fair probability (Pinnacle)30.96%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.7%
Edge (post-tax)+3.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.40%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.2500
CLV%-3.26%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Matchbook's 3.35 on the draw sits 3.72% above Pinnacle's 3.23 fair value, indicating material mispricing in a matchup where both teams have shown defensive solidity this season. The 3.7% edge represents a significant deviation from market consensus, suggesting Matchbook has underpriced the draw probability at approximately 29.9% versus the 30.96% implied by Pinnacle's sharper pricing.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.2300 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.3500 |