Settled
Free pick
Solid
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerMarathonbet
Book odds3.9800
Pinnacle anchor3.8300
Fair probability (Pinnacle)26.11%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.9%
Edge (post-tax)+3.9%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.33%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+2.98u
Pinnacle closing line3.8600
CLV%-3.58%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Marathonbet's 3.98 on the draw overvalues the outcome by approximately 3.92% relative to Pinnacle's 3.83 fair value, implying a 26.1% implied probability versus Pinnacle's 26.1% baseline. The positive variance between the two sharp price points indicates Marathonbet has underpriced the draw likelihood in a fixture where both teams' recent form and tactical setups suggest elevated draw probability, creating a quantifiable positive expectation of +0.15 odds units per unit wagered.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.8300 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.9800 |