Settled
Free pick
Solid
Sassuolo vs Lecce
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds2.8200
Pinnacle anchor2.7300
Fair probability (Pinnacle)36.63%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.3%
Edge (post-tax)+3.3%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.45%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line2.7300
CLV%-2.66%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Smarkets prices Sassuolo at 2.82 against Pinnacle's 2.73 fair value, creating a 3.30% post-tax edge on the home selection. This 0.09 odds gap represents meaningful mispricing in Sassuolo's favor given their superior underlying metrics compared to Lecce and the strength of playing at the Mapei Stadium. The edge persists after accounting for Smarkets' commission structure, indicating genuine positive expected value for backing the home side.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 2.7300 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 2.8200 |