Settled
Free pick
Small
Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerBetr AU
Book odds2.3500
Pinnacle anchor2.3000
Fair probability (Pinnacle)43.48%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.2%
Edge (post-tax)+2.2%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.40%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+1.35u
Pinnacle closing line2.0600
CLV%+8.67%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Rayo Vallecano at 2.35 on Betr AU shows a 2.2% positive edge when benchmarked against Pinnacle's 2.30 fair value. Pinnacle's odds reflect minimal margin and sharp market action, making it a reliable anchor for identifying mispricing in retail sportsbooks. The edge here suggests modest value for the home selection.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 2.3000 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 2.3500 |