Settled
Free pick
Strong
Atalanta BC vs Bologna
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerBetfair
Book odds5.0000
Pinnacle anchor4.7900
Fair probability (Pinnacle)20.88%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.4%
Edge (post-tax)+4.4%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.27%
Units (display)2u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+8.00u
Pinnacle closing line4.6100
CLV%+0.62%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Betfair's 5.00 on Bologna away represents significant departure from Pinnacle's 4.79 fair value, implying a 4.38% post-tax edge on the selection. The 4.4% differential suggests Betfair's market is overweighting Atalanta's home advantage despite Bologna's competitive form this season, creating mispricing in the away odds. This edge persists even after accounting for typical tax structures, indicating genuine value rather than a movement-driven anomaly.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 4.7900 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 5.0000 |