Settled
Free pick
Strong
CA Osasuna vs Espanyol
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerDraftKings
Book odds4.4000
Pinnacle anchor4.2200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)23.70%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.3%
Edge (post-tax)+4.3%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.31%
Units (display)2u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+6.80u
Pinnacle closing line4.1700
CLV%-1.63%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
DraftKings prices Espanyol's away victory at 4.40 (22.73% implied) while Pinnacle's 4.22 fair value suggests a true probability of 23.70%, creating a 97 basis point overlay on the selection. After accounting for DraftKings' typical tax structure, the post-tax edge of 4.27% represents significant value against a sharp closing line, with the away side offering approximately 4 percentage points of positive expected value relative to the market consensus.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 4.2200 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 4.4000 |