Settled
Free pick
Solid
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds4.0000
Pinnacle anchor3.8600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)25.91%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.6%
Edge (post-tax)+3.6%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.30%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line4.2000
CLV%-10.69%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's closing line of 3.86 represents fair value with minimal margin, reflecting sharp market consensus. The Matchbook odds at 4.00 offer a 3.6% edge after accounting for tax, suggesting Wolverhampton is underpriced relative to the fundamental probability that Pinnacle's volume and low-margin model has calibrated.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 3.8600 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 4.0000 |