Sassuolo vs Lecce
Serie A - Italy · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
Matchbook's 2.82 on Sassuolo home carries a 2.17% post-tax edge relative to Pinnacle's 2.76 fair value, representing a +6 cent overround gap that favors the backer. Sassuolo's home record and underlying metrics likely support Pinnacle's assessment, but the 2.3% overround differential provides sufficient margin to justify backing at the higher odds. This positive expected value edge persists even after accounting for Matchbook's commission structure, making home a quantitatively sound selection at this price.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 2.7600 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 2.8200 |