Settled
Free pick
Solid
Newcastle United vs West Ham United
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 04:30 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerBetMGM
Book odds3.9000
Pinnacle anchor3.7700
Fair probability (Pinnacle)26.53%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.5%
Edge (post-tax)+3.5%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.30%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.9500
CLV%-7.03%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Newcastle vs West Ham draw at 3.90 on BetMGM offers 3.5% edge against Pinnacle's 3.77 fair value. Pinnacle's tight 2-3% margins and sharp action flow make it a reliable baseline for identifying mispriced outcomes. The positive edge suggests BetMGM's pricing diverges from where informed market participants have settled.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.7700 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.9000 |