Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds4.5000
Pinnacle anchor4.1900
Fair probability (Pinnacle)23.87%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+7.4%
Edge (post-tax)+7.4%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.53%
Units (display)3u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Pinnacle closing line4.8700
CLV%-16.71%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Matchbook's 4.50 on Bournemouth overvalues home equity by 7.4% post-tax relative to Pinnacle's 4.19 fair value anchor, suggesting the market has materially underestimated either the home side's baseline quality or Manchester City's injury/form vulnerability in this specific fixture. At typical Matchbook commission structures, this represents a quantifiable positive expectation that persists even after accounting for transaction costs and the efficiency gap between sharp and soft books.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 4.1900 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 4.5000 |