Settled
Free pick
Solid
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerBetfair
Book odds1.9900
Pinnacle anchor1.9300
Fair probability (Pinnacle)51.81%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.1%
Edge (post-tax)+3.1%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.79%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.8800
CLV%-0.24%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Fulham at 1.99 on Betfair shows positive expected value against Pinnacle's 1.93 fair line, with a 3.1% edge after accounting for betting taxes. Pinnacle's tight margins and sharp action make it a reliable reference point for identifying mispriced odds in retail markets. The away side represents a measurable overlay in this matchup.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 1.9300 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 1.9900 |