Settled
Free pick
Solid
Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerBetfair
Book odds3.3500
Pinnacle anchor3.2400
Fair probability (Pinnacle)30.86%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.4%
Edge (post-tax)+3.4%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.36%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+2.35u
Pinnacle closing line3.2700
CLV%-3.50%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo draw at 3.35 on Betafair offers a 3.4% edge over Pinnacle's 3.24 fair value. Pinnacle's tight margins and sharp European action make it a reliable benchmark for true probability, indicating the draw is underpriced in the wider market.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.2400 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.3500 |