Settled
Free pick
Solid
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerLadbrokes
Book odds1.8000
Pinnacle anchor1.7400
Fair probability (Pinnacle)57.47%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.5%
Edge (post-tax)+3.5%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.08%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line1.6400
CLV%+2.71%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Ladbrokes prices Manchester City at 1.80 while Pinnacle's sharp consensus sits at 1.74, creating a 3.45% positive deviation after accounting for standard UK betting tax. The 6-tick overround differential suggests the market is underweighting City's away form and recent offensive output against mid-table opposition, with Ladbrokes' softer odds offering value on the regression-expected favourite.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 1.7400 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 1.8000 |