Sevilla vs Real Madrid

Betfair's 3.45 on Sevilla represents a 29.0% implied probability versus Pinnacle's 3.28 fair value anchor at 30.5%, creating a 1.5 percentage point underestimation of home win likelihood that translates to a 5.18% post-tax edge. The gap widens when accounting for Betfair's commission structure, as the 3.45 odds require only a 29.0% win rate to break even while the fair value suggests 30.5%, establishing meaningful positive expected value on the home selection.