Settled
Free pick
Solid
CA Osasuna vs Espanyol
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerSportsbet AU
Book odds4.3300
Pinnacle anchor4.2200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)23.70%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.6%
Edge (post-tax)+2.6%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.20%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+3.33u
Pinnacle closing line4.1700
CLV%-1.63%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Sportsbet AU is offering Espanyol at 4.33 against a Pinnacle fair value of 4.22, implying the away side is underpriced by approximately 2.61% after accounting for Australian tax on fixed odds. This represents a positive expected value position where the bookmaker's odds exceed the sharp consensus by 0.11 in decimal terms, translating to roughly 26 basis points of edge on an individual bet basis.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 4.2200 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 4.3300 |