Settled
Free pick
Small
Barcelona vs Real Betis
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerLadbrokes AU
Book odds1.3500
Pinnacle anchor1.3200
Fair probability (Pinnacle)75.76%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.3%
Edge (post-tax)+2.3%
Kelly fraction (quarter)1.62%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+0.35u
Pinnacle closing line1.3400
CLV%-4.60%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Barcelona is priced at 1.35 by Ladbrokes AU against a Pinnacle fair value of 1.32, creating a positive expected value opportunity for the home side. After accounting for Australian tax obligations, the post-tax edge amounts to 2.27%, indicating that the market has underestimated Barcelona's true winning probability relative to the closing line. The gap between Ladbrokes' odds and Pinnacle's sharp assessment suggests sufficient value to justify backing the home selection.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.3200 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 1.3500 |