Settled
Free pick
Solid
Real Sociedad vs Valencia
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds2.3600
Pinnacle anchor2.3000
Fair probability (Pinnacle)43.48%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.6%
Edge (post-tax)+2.6%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.48%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line2.3000
CLV%-2.77%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Real Sociedad at 2.36 on Smarkets offers positive expected value against Pinnacle's 2.30 fair line, representing a 2.61% post-tax edge that compensates for the commission structure. The pricing discrepancy suggests market overvaluation of Valencia's away form relative to Sociedad's home strength, with the 6 basis point gap providing sufficient margin to justify backing the selection at current odds.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 2.3000 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 2.3600 |