Settled
Free pick
Solid
Leeds United vs Brighton and Hove Albion
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds3.8500
Pinnacle anchor3.7500
Fair probability (Pinnacle)26.67%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.7%
Edge (post-tax)+2.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.23%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.6000
CLV%+1.28%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Leeds vs Brighton draw at 3.85 on Smarkets offers a 2.7% edge over Pinnacle's fair value of 3.75, which represents genuine positive expected value given Pinnacle's razor-thin margins and sharp market action. The odds discrepancy reflects Smarkets' wider book compared to the industry standard, creating an arbitrage opportunity for bettors targeting this specific outcome.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.7500 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.8500 |