Settled
Free pick
Solid
Levante vs Mallorca
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerPaddy Power
Book odds3.4000
Pinnacle anchor3.3000
Fair probability (Pinnacle)30.30%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.0%
Edge (post-tax)+3.0%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.32%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.4800
CLV%-7.87%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's 3.30 fair value sits notably below Paddy Power's 3.40 odds, creating a 3.0% edge after accounting for tax. Pinnacle maintains minimal margins and attracts professional sharp action, making their pricing a reliable equilibrium benchmark. The gap suggests Paddy Power has priced the draw outcome slightly undervalued relative to true probability in this matchup.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.3000 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.4000 |