Settled
Free pick
Solid
Oviedo vs Alavés
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerMarathonbet
Book odds3.8000
Pinnacle anchor3.6600
Fair probability (Pinnacle)27.32%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.8%
Edge (post-tax)+3.8%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.34%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.3700
CLV%+5.54%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's fair value of 3.66 on the draw suggests a 27.3% implied probability, while Marathonbet's 3.80 reflects 26.3%, creating a 3.8% positive edge after accounting for tax. Pinnacle's tight margins and sharp-money action make it a reliable baseline for value identification in lower-liquidity markets like La Liga.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.6600 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.8000 |