Settled
Free pick
Strong
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerTipico
Book odds5.2000
Pinnacle anchor4.9700
Fair probability (Pinnacle)20.12%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.6%
Edge (post-tax)+4.6%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.28%
Units (display)2u
Published5/16/26, 3:51 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-2.00u
Closing line statusNot captured
Settled at5/17/26, 3:16 PM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's 4.97 fair value sits meaningfully below Tipico's 5.20 odds, creating a 4.6% edge after accounting for tax and vigorish. Pinnacle's low-margin operation and sharp market action make their implied probability of 20.1% for an away Nottingham Forest win a reliable reference point. The discrepancy suggests Tipico's line has shifted toward overvaluing the away side relative to the market consensus.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 3:51 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 4.9700 | |
| 5/16/26, 3:51 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 5.2000 |