Settled
Free pick
Solid
Atlético Madrid vs Girona
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerNordicBet
Book odds1.7500
Pinnacle anchor1.7000
Fair probability (Pinnacle)58.82%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.9%
Edge (post-tax)+2.9%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.98%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+0.75u
Pinnacle closing line1.7000
CLV%-3.41%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
NordicBet's 1.75 on Atlético Madrid home win offers a 2.94% post-tax edge against Pinnacle's 1.70 fair value anchor, implying the market underprices the home team's win probability by approximately 2.8 percentage points (58.8% vs 58.8% break-even). At home in La Liga, Atlético Madrid's superior squad quality and established defensive structure create structural value when bookmakers compress odds tighter than their true win probability justifies.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 1.7000 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 1.7500 |