Settled
Free pick
Strong
Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds2.4000
Pinnacle anchor2.3000
Fair probability (Pinnacle)43.48%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+4.3%
Edge (post-tax)+4.3%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.78%
Units (display)2u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+2.80u
Pinnacle closing line2.0600
CLV%+8.67%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Rayo Vallecano at 2.40 on Smarkets shows a 4.3% edge after tax against Pinnacle's 2.30 fair value. Pinnacle's tight margins and sharp market action make it a reliable baseline for probability assessment, indicating this price contains genuine value relative to true odds. The edge persists after accounting for the Smarkets liquidity tax, suggesting the home side is underpriced in this matchup.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 2.3000 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 2.4000 |