Settled
Free pick
Strong
Atlético Madrid vs Girona
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerTipico
Book odds3.9000
Pinnacle anchor3.7100
Fair probability (Pinnacle)26.95%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+5.1%
Edge (post-tax)+5.1%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.44%
Units (display)2u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-2.00u
Pinnacle closing line4.2200
CLV%-15.08%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's fair value of 3.71 for a draw implies a 26.9% probability, while Tipico's 3.90 odds offer 25.6% implied probability, creating a 5.1% positive edge after accounting for tax. Pinnacle's model reflects the sharpest market pricing due to their low margins and substantial professional action, making it a reliable benchmark for value identification in this matchup.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.7100 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.9000 |