Settled
Free pick
Solid
Sevilla vs Real Madrid
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerMarathonbet
Book odds3.3800
Pinnacle anchor3.2800
Fair probability (Pinnacle)30.49%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.0%
Edge (post-tax)+3.0%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.32%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.2500
CLV%-1.89%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Marathonbet's 3.38 on Sevilla represents a 3.05% post-tax edge over Pinnacle's 3.28 fair value, indicating the home side is underpriced by approximately 10 basis points in implied probability. The discrepancy suggests market inefficiency where Marathonbet is offering superior odds relative to the consensus fair value, creating measurable positive expected value on this selection.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 3.2800 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 3.3800 |