Settled
Free pick
Solid
Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerCoral
Book odds2.3700
Pinnacle anchor2.3000
Fair probability (Pinnacle)43.48%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.0%
Edge (post-tax)+3.0%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.56%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+1.37u
Pinnacle closing line2.0600
CLV%+8.67%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Rayo Vallecano home win carries 2.37 odds at Coral against a Pinnacle fair value of 2.30, yielding a 3.0% edge after tax. Pinnacle's near-zero margin and sharp-money flow make its pricing a reliable anchor for detecting value, and this differential suggests Coral's odds moderately underestimate Rayo's win probability in this matchup.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 2.3000 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 2.3700 |