Settled
Free pick
Solid
Sevilla vs Real Madrid
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds3.7000
Pinnacle anchor3.5900
Fair probability (Pinnacle)27.86%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.1%
Edge (post-tax)+3.1%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.28%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.5900
CLV%-2.79%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Matchbook's 3.70 on the draw sits 3.06% above Pinnacle's 3.59 fair value anchor, creating positive expected value on a market where Sevilla's home field advantage and Real Madrid's recent inconsistency historically produce elevated draw frequencies in head-to-head matchups. The overround differential suggests the market is underweighting the probability of a stalemate outcome relative to the true odds, offering a quantifiable edge for contrarian positioning.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.5900 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.7000 |