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Settled
Free pick
Solid

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham

EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC

Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds3.9500
Pinnacle anchor3.8300
Fair probability (Pinnacle)26.11%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.1%
Edge (post-tax)+3.1%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.27%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+2.95u
Pinnacle closing line3.8600
CLV%-3.58%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)

Matchbook's draw price of 3.95 sits 3.13% above Pinnacle's 3.83 fair value anchor, indicating the market is underpricing draw probability at approximately 26.1% versus the true implied 26.1% fair line, representing positive expected value of +3.13% on the selection. Wolverhampton's defensive solidity and Fulham's balanced attacking approach historically support elevated draw frequency in this fixture, with both teams' recent form and tactical setup aligning closer to Pinnacle's assessment than Matchbook's steeper odds.

Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit

pinnacle
bookmaker
Odds snapshots over time per source3.933.893.853.833.95May 17, 10:58 AMMay 17, 10:58 AM

Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.

Odds history (2 snapshots)
TimestampSourceMarketSelectionOddsClosing
5/17/26, 10:58 AMpinnacleh2hdraw3.8300
5/17/26, 10:58 AMbookmakerh2hdraw3.9500
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