Settled
Free pick
Big edge
CA Osasuna vs Espanyol
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerBetr AU
Book odds2.9500
Pinnacle anchor2.7400
Fair probability (Pinnacle)36.50%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+7.7%
Edge (post-tax)+7.7%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.98%
Units (display)3u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Pinnacle closing line2.8700
CLV%-7.20%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Pinnacle's 2.74 fair value sits notably below the 2.95 offered at Betr AU, creating a 7.7% edge after accounting for tax. Pinnacle maintains industry-leading margins and attracts the sharpest action, making their pricing a reliable anchor for expected value calculations. The draw at these odds carries positive expected value relative to the market's consensus.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 2.7400 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 2.9500 |