Settled
Free pick
Solid
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerMatchbook
Book odds4.3000
Pinnacle anchor4.1900
Fair probability (Pinnacle)23.87%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.6%
Edge (post-tax)+2.6%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.20%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+3.30u
Pinnacle closing line4.5900
CLV%-11.63%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/20/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Matchbook's draw price of 4.30 sits 2.63% above Pinnacle's 4.19 fair value, representing a clear positive expected value opportunity where the bookmaker has overpriced the outcome relative to the market consensus. Given Bournemouth's defensive solidity at home and Manchester City's recent inconsistency, the overround allocation appears to have inflated the draw odds beyond their true probability of approximately 23.9%, creating a quantifiable edge for bettors willing to back the stalemate scenario.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 4.1900 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 4.3000 |