Settled
Free pick
Small
Real Sociedad vs Valencia
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — draw
BookmakerCoral
Book odds3.5000
Pinnacle anchor3.4300
Fair probability (Pinnacle)29.15%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.0%
Edge (post-tax)+2.0%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.20%
Units (display)1u
Published5/17/26, 3:18 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line3.4300
CLV%-2.77%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Coral's 3.50 on the draw overvalues the outcome relative to Pinnacle's 3.43 fair value, creating a 2.04% post-tax edge. The 0.07 decimal difference translates to meaningful value given the match context where both teams have shown recent defensive stability and limited attacking penetration, making a stalemate a probabilistically sound outcome at these odds. This represents a clear arbitrage opportunity where the bookmaker's pricing diverges from the sharp consensus line.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.4300 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.5000 |