Settled
Free pick
Solid
Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 05:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — home
BookmakerSmarkets
Book odds2.2200
Pinnacle anchor2.1500
Fair probability (Pinnacle)46.51%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+3.3%
Edge (post-tax)+3.3%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.67%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-1.00u
Pinnacle closing line2.2300
CLV%-6.10%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Athletic Bilbao home odds at 2.22 offer positive expected value against the Pinnacle fair-value estimate of 2.15, representing a 3.3% edge after accounting for tax. Pinnacle's low-margin operation and sharp-money flow make it a reliable benchmark for true probability, suggesting the market has undervalued the home side's chances in this matchup.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | home | 2.1500 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | home | 2.2200 |