Settled
Free pick
Solid
Everton vs Sunderland
EPL · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerFanDuel
Book odds4.3000
Pinnacle anchor4.1800
Fair probability (Pinnacle)23.92%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+2.9%
Edge (post-tax)+2.9%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.22%
Units (display)1u
Published5/16/26, 4:45 PM
Result
OutcomeWon
Profit (units)+3.30u
Pinnacle closing line4.4200
CLV%-8.30%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Sunderland at 4.30 on FanDuel carries a 2.9% edge relative to Pinnacle's 4.18 fair value. Pinnacle's minimal margin and sharp-money flow make it a reliable benchmark for true probability; the positive deviation here reflects FanDuel's wider book pricing the away win below its estimated fair value.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 4.1800 | |
| 5/16/26, 4:45 PM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 4.3000 |