Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
EPL · Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Matchbook's draw price of 3.90 offers a 2.36% edge when compared to Pinnacle's 3.81 fair value, representing significant positive expected value given the tight historical performance differential between these rivals and Chelsea's recent defensive vulnerabilities. The overround gap suggests market inefficiency in assessing the probability of a stalemate, with Matchbook's odds implying approximately 25.6% draw probability versus Pinnacle's 26.2%, indicating a subtle but quantifiable mispricing favoring the draw outcome.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | pinnacle | h2h | draw | 3.8100 | |
| 5/17/26, 3:18 PM | bookmaker | h2h | draw | 3.9000 |