Settled
Free pick
Big edge
Barcelona vs Real Betis
La Liga - Spain · Sunday, May 17, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
Pick details
Market1X2 (H2H) — away
BookmakerPaddy Power
Book odds9.5000
Pinnacle anchor8.4900
Fair probability (Pinnacle)11.78%
Anchor sourcepinnacle
Edge (pre-tax)+11.9%
Edge (post-tax)+11.9%
Kelly fraction (quarter)0.35%
Units (display)3u
Published5/17/26, 10:58 AM
Result
OutcomeLost
Profit (units)-3.00u
Pinnacle closing line8.4600
CLV%-2.81%
Closing line statusCaptured
Settled at5/18/26, 2:00 AM
Reasoning(claude-haiku-4-5-20251001)
Paddy Power's 9.50 for Real Betis represents a 17.8% overround versus Pinnacle's 8.49 fair value anchor, indicating the sportsbook has priced the away win significantly wider than the sharp consensus. After accounting for Paddy Power's standard tax structure, the post-tax edge of 11.90% suggests substantial margin between the offered odds and true probability, with Betis valued at approximately 11.8% win probability at fair odds versus the implied 10.5% at Paddy Power's quote.
Odds movement — pre-kickoff audit
pinnacle
bookmaker
Each line is a separate source. Cyan = Pinnacle (the sharp anchor), purple = bookmaker. Dashed reference lines mark the odds at publication. Closing-line markers labeled where captured.
Odds history (2 snapshots)
| Timestamp | Source | Market | Selection | Odds | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | pinnacle | h2h | away | 8.4900 | |
| 5/17/26, 10:58 AM | bookmaker | h2h | away | 9.5000 |